Conspiracy

Two or more people coordinating in secret. That's it. That's all the word means.

Conspiracies are not exotic. They are one of the most common structures in human history. Price-fixing cartels, insider trading, covert regime changes, illegal surveillance programs, corporate cover-ups of product defects — all of these are conspiracies, and all of them have been proven in courts, declassified documents, and congressional hearings. LIBOR rate-fixing involved the world's largest banks. Iran-Contra involved the White House. MK-Ultra involved the CIA dosing unwitting citizens with LSD. These are not theories. They are documented, adjudicated facts.

The confusion comes from the phrase "conspiracy theory," which has been repurposed as a label. Once applied, it files your question next to flat earth and alien abductions — regardless of the evidence behind it. The label works not because the question is absurd, but because the social cost of being associated with the absurd is high enough to shut most people up.

This is the distinction that matters: a conspiracy is an event. A conspiracy theory is a hypothesis about an event. Some hypotheses are wrong. Some turn out to be exactly right. The label tells you nothing about which is which — it only tells you someone doesn't want the question asked.

When you hear "conspiracy theory," ask yourself: is this being used to describe a specific claim, or to avoid engaging with one?

References

• Tim Weiner — Legacy of Ashes: The History of the CIA (2007)
• Daniele Ganser — NATO's Secret Armies (2005)
• Nassim Nicholas Taleb — The Black Swan (2007)